Volume 2, Number 4 California voters (at least some of them) are poised to go to the polls in a special election in just under three weeks to decide the fate of five propositions put on the ballot by Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature. The key props – 1A through 1E – are said to be essential to resolving California’s critical budget shortfall. According to a new survey by the Field Institute, voters aren’t buying it. First, let me say that I have not changed my opinion of the Field Poll as a historically unreliable source of information on how voters view pending ballot measures. They have been so far off on so many issues I have been involved in that I always take their data with a slab – not a grain – of salt. That said, the trend that Field is reporting (all of the above measures are trailing badly) is almost certainly correct and reflects the results of other recent polling. That 1A thru 1E appear headed for the trashcan is not the most interesting finding of the Field Poll. The most interesting finding is that 72 percent of voters agree that voting down the measures “will send a message to the governor and state Legislature that voters are tired of more government spending and higher taxes.” Three-fourths of Independent voters and 60 percent of Democrats agree with that statement, as do an overwhelming percentage of Republicans in the state. Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo calls this a “message election” and he is exactly right. And the message to Sacramento is not very positive. It will be quite interesting to see if the governor and his legislative allies get the message that the voters are poised to deliver on May 19th. Voters are making it clear they are tired of rampant state government spending and higher taxes. Virtually every family and taxpayer in California is already struggling with the recession. Wages are flat. Unemployment is over 11 percent. Families are making the tough spending decisions to make-do with less. They want their state government to do the same, without demanding more money from hard-working taxpayers. Somehow I doubt that the political leadership will get this message. My guess is that they will say it is impossible to cut government programs much further. They will eschew any effort to strategically restructure government to eliminate non-essential functions and streamline operations. Heck, they aren’t even willing to eliminate the much-criticized and hugely wasteful Integrated Waste Management Board, which is a landing place for termed out legislators and their relatives. My predictions? We’ll have a huge hue and cry over the problems voters will be blamed for creating by rejecting Prop 1A and its progeny. Legislative Democrats will propose a new series of tax increases and fees to tack onto the income, sales and vehicle tax increases they passed this year. I imagine that “sin,” oil production and commercial property taxes will be among the most heavily promoted ideas to “enhance revenues.” Most likely, legislative Republicans won’t go along with any new tax increases, having been burned by their last budget vote. If that proves to be the case, watch for an illegal attempt by Governor Schwarzenegger and Democrats to pass a majority vote budget fix that relies extensively on “fee” increases. This will, in turn, result in immediate court challenges and – depending on what taxes (disguised as “fees”) are increased – a raft of referendum proposals to overturn the actions. Meaning that this could all be back before voters before you know it. * * * The expected defeat of Prop 1A presents an interesting situation for both Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman – whether to jump on the bandwagon with TV ads opposing the measure. The special election provides an inviting opportunity to more clearly define their candidacies at a time when voters are paying attention (at least those who plan to vote in the special election). The opportunity is particularly inviting for Poizner who, despite four years as Insurance Commissioner and extensive party building efforts among the GOP faithful, is still largely unknown to voters. To his credit, Poizner was first among elected GOP officials to condemn the budget deal that raised taxes and gave us Prop 1A. I would not be at all surprised to see him on television soon to make this fact known to voters. * * * Speaking of sending a message, there is actually a sixth proposition on the ballot. Prop 1F would prohibit legislators from getting a pay raise when there is a deficit. It is passing by 71% of the vote – almost the exact percent of voters who say they are tired of spending and taxes. * * * At the same time as California voters are teeing up a “message election” we have national pundits and liberal “GOP” experts saying that the decision of US Senator Arlen Specter to run for reelection next year as a Democrat means the Republican Party has lost any platform it had to become relevant again to the American people. To which I say: what nonsense. It is true that Specter’s defection, combined with the expected seating of Democrat Al Franken in Minnesota means that Democrats will theoretically have a filibuster-proof majority, should they be able to hold all their votes. But all this talk from the chattering class in Washington that the GOP has lost its platform in the Senate to remake their image is silly. Messaging for Republicans in Washington is no more complicated than the message that voters are trying to send politicians in Sacramento: stop spending money and quit raising taxes. Specter may actually help the GOP because he will presumably allow more of the Obama programs to become law. When voters come to understand the cost of all of the president’s bailouts, stimulus plans, and new government mandates, they may be ready to send another message during the midterm elections: this was not the change we wanted. # # #
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It was with some amusement and surprise to see that I made the Capitol Weekly list of the most influential people in state politics. I didn’t even know I was being considered. Picked as the 22 most influential person in the state, I was somehow ranked higher than some people who actually have real influence. Next year I will probably not be on the list at all, but I have to admit it is flattering to have made this year’s, even if in an inflated position!
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