Volume 1, Number 13
Governor Schwarzenegger is barnstorming the state telling anyone who will listen that he’s apparently ready to sign off on a budget deal that includes higher revenues combined with budget cuts. Now Schwarzenegger stops ever so short of outright advocating for a tax increase. Instead, he talks openly about “everything being on the table,” a “balanced budget solution,” “closing loopholes,” enacting new user “fees,” a “creative approach” to balancing the budget, and similar euphemisms.
All of that is code for raising taxes.
The danger in this talk is that some Republicans could end up following his lead. If Governor
Schwarzenegger can convince enough Republicans to go along, and he certainly has tools at his disposal, it might produce a short-term budget deal, but it would be fatal to legislative Republicans, especially the Assembly GOP Caucus.
Legislative Republicans have one thing—and one thing only—that makes them relevant to policymaking and that is the 2/3rds vote requirement to pass a budget, increase taxes, enact urgency statues and put measures on the ballot. If they lose that leverage for a lousy budget deal, they will have killed themselves politically.
There are 32 Republicans in the Assembly, and 15 in the Senate. That means the GOP has to hold 27 of 32 votes in the Assembly and 14 of 15 in the Senate. The Senate GOP Caucus is already in an extremely tenuous position. One Republican member is a loyal Schwarzenegger vote, and another is facing a recall. If the recall were to be successful, then the only game in town is the Assembly Republican Caucus.
Some of my sources in the Assembly GOP Caucus are concerned about being able to hold the line against higher revenues in the budget. Of the current crop of Assembly Republicans, 12 are termed out of office at the end of this session, and another nine are termed out in two years. Many of these members are already running for another office, but others have no immediate prospects. And that’s a key vulnerability Republicans have to Schwarzenegger pressure.
This would not be the first time that a legislative Republican cast an unpopular vote for a Republican Governor and subsequently found himself/herself with a plum appointment to head a state agency or department, serve on an important board or commission, or be appointed to the bench. Nor would it be the first time that a Republican cast an unpopular vote in exchange for a commitment from a Republican Governor to go all-out to help that legislator in a future run for office.
The importance of holding the Caucus together to ensure that the 2/3rds vote threshold is not breached simply cannot be overstated. It really is the only thing they have going for themselves. As it is, most every other bill can be passed without regard to Republican opposition, forcing interest groups to negotiate pretty much exclusively with the Democrats and the Administration. Sadly, with majority vote bills, the Republicans serve no more important purpose than that of a back bencher in England’s House of Commons, throwing rhetorical grenades from committee rooms and the floor.
Once a breach of the 2/3rds vote threshold occurs, the GOP will lose any credibility they have with the business community that they can be counted on to defeat pending tax increase proposals. If the Caucus can no longer be trusted to defeat without exception tax increase proposals, they will have few friends remaining. Their allies in the business community will have little choice but to ignore them and fend for themselves. That loss of trust would be cataclysmic to future Republican hopes of improving their numbers in the Legislature.
Because the consequences of failing to hold a 2/3rds vote against tax increases are so grave to the Caucus as a whole, I believe that it is incumbent on the Assembly Republican leadership to make it crystal clear to members what penalty they will pay should they side with the governor and vote for a budget that increases taxes. In my view, that penalty should be to face an immediate recall in their district. One that is launched and funded by the leadership and those Republicans who stayed loyal to the cause.
Extreme? Perhaps. But also appropriate. It’s an eye for an eye – you help kill the Caucus and the Caucus will help kill your career. It wouldn’t be the first time.
When Republicans won a majority of the State Assembly in the 1994 elections, it should have been cause for great celebration. Instead, two of their members—first Paul Horcher and then Doris Allen—turned against the caucus for their own personal gain to keep Willie Brown as Speaker. Both were eventually recalled from office, and Republican Curt Pringle was ultimately elected as Speaker. But the machinations took over a year to play out, and Republicans were denied that critical time to organize the Assembly, pursue a pro-business policy agenda and establish a strong political operation. They lost control in 1996, and haven’t regained it since.
Let Governor Schwarzenegger tour the state trying to set the stage for a tax-increasing state budget. But legislative Republicans should use that same time to let members know exactly what the consequences will be if they get sucked into following the Terminator. Namely, termination of their political career.
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