Frank's Rants

Random Ramblings...

Vol. 1 Number 6

The State Republican Party held its semi-annual convention in San Francisco over the weekend, begging the question, “Why?” One couldn’t imagine a city more hostile to Republicans than San Francisco. This city voted 83% for John Kerry in 2004. George Bush got 15% of the vote, and that includes a lot of votes cast in error. The much more moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger managed to almost double Bush’s vote percentage to 29%.

By tradition, the state GOP alternates convention locations between southern and northern California. Surely they could have picked a more politically suitable Nor-Cal location, say a place like San Jose. But that would have meant delegates would have to spend considerable time in a place like San Jose. This just goes to show you that even in the world of partisan politics, things like the availability of top hotels, fine restaurants and exciting night life trump political purity.

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The big news being reported out of the SF convention is that the state GOP apparently has a big donor on the hook to erase the crushing debt it accumulated during the 2006 election cycle. That’s a sordid tale of its own. The GOP went heavily into debt to, in part, finance the highly-touted “micro-targeting” strategy undertaken by political advisors to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Micro-targeting involves integrating political databases with commercial databases to create a profile of an individual voter. Those deemed “persuadable” are targeted by the campaign. Schwarzenegger’s advisers had seen micro-targeting used in the 2004 presidential election, and credited it for helping Bush carry critical states like Ohio. But the 2006 Schwarzenegger micro-targeting effort came with a step price – at least $26 million. Arnold won reelection, but the micro-targeting effort that was counted on to boost the prospects of GOP candidates and causes was a complete and costly bust. With the presidential election fast approaching, the GOP is still trying to pay off those old bills.

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Other supposed news out of SF is that John McCain will seriously contest California. Don’t believe it. California is solidly Democratic at the presidential level. McCain will come here, but only to raise money. John Kerry didn’t spend a single cent in the state, yet wracked up a 1.2 million vote victory margin over George Bush. If California is competitive, it means the GOP will be winning an electorate landslide nationally.

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So the Oscar for Best Picture goes to “No Country for Old Men,” reinforcing my belief that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences has no clue what they are doing. My wife and I saw four of the five nominated films for Best Picture. (The film Michael Clayton is no longer in theaters in the Sacramento area. What does it say when a movie nominated for Best Picture isn’t even good enough to stay in theaters?)  ‘No Country’ was an extremely dark, depressing film. So was “There Will Be Blood.”  And “Atonement.” As the screen faded to black in each of these films, I asked myself, “What?” The endings were as unsatisfactory as the films themselves. It wasn’t just us. In every case, we ended up in the theater lobby with other filmgoers who felt the same way. “Why did they even bother to make that film?” was a common question. Of all the Best Picture nominated films we saw, only “Juno” was worth the price of admission. But “Juno” didn’t come close to winning. And the Academy blew it further by not giving the talented, young actress Ellen Page an Oscar for her brilliant performance as a pregnant teenager. The Oscar show itself was lousy. The writing was rusty; host Jon Stewart was flat; too much time was wasted on stupid film montages of things like binoculars and periscopes in the movies, and scenes with bad dreams; and all the nominated songs were duds. Not even the band could get things right when they prematurely rushed an award winner off stage two words into her acceptance speech. Embarrassed, the show’s producers had to let her come back to speak after a commercial break. If things stay true to form, this lousy show, like the movies they recognized, will win a television Emmy award from their friends in Hollywood. There will be a big party celebrating their achievement and they’ll wonder why nobody goes to the movies anymore. Ugghh.

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Closing on an upper: Tiger Woods is super-human. He cruised to another victory this past weekend in the World Golf Championships Match Play tournament in Arizona, beating Stewart Cink 8 and 7 in dominating fashion.  He extends his winning streak to six consecutive tournaments, and eight of his last nine. To understand how completely Tiger Woods is dominating the world of professional golf, consider this: In his past 33 tournaments dating back to 2006, Tiger has won 19 of them, and finished in second place 6 times. Simply astonishing.

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Republican Hangover

Vol. 1, Number 5

Much has been written about the lack of enthusiasm conservatives have for John McCain. This happens to be a very real problem for him. Conservatives don’t much like, or trust, the presumptive nominee. He’s taken positions that are anathema to conservatives on hot button issues like immigration, global warming and campaign finance. He also has become enamored of the media spotlight where he has been all too willing to poke President Bush and other prominent Republicans in the eye. A Republican Senator criticizing a Republican President is a sure way to get press coverage. That might make you a favorite of the New York Times, but it doesn’t play all that well in Red State country.

However, McCain’s problems go much deeper than conservative mistrust—and they aren’t necessarily unique to his candidacy. There has been a decided lack of enthusiasm among Republicans for any of the people who entered the presidential race this cycle. In fact, Republicans have been dispirited for a good long while now. After more than a decade of power in Washington, it’s as if rank and file Republicans have a hangover. And for good reason: GOP Congressional leaders bungled their years in power and became the party of big spending, rather than fiscal conservativism. “Conservative” lawmakers became experts in earmarking, bringing home the federal pork for their districts at the expense of the national interest. War heroes like Duke Cunningham turned out to be on the take. Conservative stalwarts like Tom Delay and John Doolittle got wrapped up in the Jack Abramoff influence peddling scandal. Despite their rhetoric, the GOP did nothing to secure our borders when they had the chance. And then the war in Iraq went south, and with it, the final reason for GOP passion.

For the Republicans to have a chance of keeping the White House, the party faithful have to get excited again. They need to have some passion and genuine enthusiasm. They need Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee.

Hillary can do for Republicans what John McCain can’t. She can fire up the troops and give the GOP a cause they can pursue. The thought of eight more years of Clinton Scandals is enough to shake off even the deepest partisan hangover.

If Barrack Obama wins the nomination, I think the race is effectively over. There just isn’t the passionate dislike of him that there is for Hillary Clinton. Oh, sure, the GOP faithful won’t much care for his policies, and they’ll vote for McCain. But all the passion among the electorate will be for Obama. It takes passionate supporters to register new voters, to reach the disaffected and tuned out, to walk the precincts and phone the lists, and to contribute the financial resources to do all the things that ultimately make the difference in an election.

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Corruption of Language

Lord Acton is the person who famously observed that power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. As California government has expanded beyond any rational dimension, one of the victims of corruption is language itself.

Government has corrupted the plain meaning of words in some powerful ways. Those in charge rarely call a press conference to announce the redefinition of an important concept, they just do it and the media all too often report it as fact. Over time, the “fact” becomes repeated so often it is simply accepted and unchallenged. Let’s look at three examples.

California is said to face a $14 billion state budget “deficit” requiring drastic action to balance the budget. Really? When most people think of a budget deficit, they think there isn’t enough tax revenue to keep important programs operating, and we must either suffer reductions in spending on these programs, or increase taxes to keep them operating at current levels. But that belief would be wrong. When government says they have a deficit, they mean there isn’t enough money to pay for expanding government programs to the level they had planned. California’s General Fund in the current 2007-08 state budget is estimated to be just over $101 billion. General Fund revenues in the Governor’s proposed 2008-09 budget are estimated at $103.5 billion. That is more than a $2 billion increase in revenues available for state spending. Only in government can they call a two billion dollar increase in revenues a problem requiring massive “cuts” or tax increases to fix.

The development of “carbon offsets” to supposedly negate the impact of commercial activities is the latest trend in environmental correctness. Governor Schwarzenegger and various Hollywood celebrities have taken to purchasing these “offsets” to account for their use of fossil fuels when flying on private jets, for example. How do these carbon offsets work? They don’t, if by the term “offset” you mean an action that actually reduces greenhouse gases in the environment in order to negate the impact of increased greenhouse gases caused by commercial activity somewhere else. Take the case of north coast forest land owned by an environmental foundation that has sold  carbon “offsets.” But they don’t actually offset anything. This group owns a forest. The forest exists already, and its impact on the environment is what it is, irrespective of whether a Hollywood celebrity burns thousands of gallons of JetA fuel in a trip to Cannes. What happens with the “offset” is that the landowner collects money for doing what it is doing anyway. No greenhouse gases are scrubbed from the air, but people somehow feel better about themselves.

In the city of Lincoln, where my wife and I built our home, some trees had to be felled on our lot to create a suitable building site, and that’s how we learned about the city’s “tree mitigation” policy. We were forced to pay a fee of $100 per diameter inch to cut down a few trees. I figured that the city must “mitigate” the loss of trees on our lot by planting trees somewhere else in the city. But I figured wrong. They “mitigate” the cutting of trees by taking our money and putting it in their coffers. No trees are added anywhere in the city.

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Transportation Security Administration

Vol. 1, Number 4

I fly a lot on business. That’s why I hate the Transportation Security Administration.

I acknowledge, obviously, that protecting the nation’s skies and ports is a critical undertaking, and the TSA has a difficult job to do. But these people seem to do everything in their power to annoy me with stupid rules implemented by a staff that includes an unusually high percentage of stupid people.

The other day I had to go to Denver. The outbound flight posed no particular problem, other than the customary hassle of having to virtually strip to get through security. While in line, every thirty seconds without fail a TSA agent in a foul mood and with a surly tone barked out the following directive, “People, keep your boarding pass in your possession at all times. Do not, repeat do not, put it in one of the bins.” Gee, thanks for the tip there Sherlock. And this is what passes for a good trip through security.

I wasn’t so lucky at Denver International. I got into a security line with a TSA agent posted at the beginning of the line. She smiled, but did nothing -- didn’t look at my boarding pass, ask me for ID or do anything to protect the nation’s skies. I wondered what purpose she served. After a few minutes in line, my colleague noticed we were actually in the wrong line. So we ducked under the tape and got into the proper line. Pretty soon, a female TSA agent is yelling at me, “Hey you! What do you think you are doing? We have these lines for a reason. Are you supposed to be in this line?” I assured the squat agent that I had the proper ticket to be in the line I was in, but she wouldn’t let it rest at that. She told me that the rules were that if I was in the wrong line, I had to exit the wrong line the same way I entered it – follow the maze in reverse all the way out to the smiling TSA agent who serves no apparent purpose, and then get in the proper line and follow it back to the very spot I then occupied.  The “next time” she promised, I wouldn’t be so lucky as to just duck under the tape. I was about to tell her that if the TSA was as vigilant in guarding our borders as she was in protecting her line, we wouldn’t be in this terrorism mess, but I thought better of that.

Good thing, because then the squat agent left me and began to pace. She walked along the geometric carpet pattern, turning with each angle of the pattern, head down, watching her steps as she made it around the 20 foot pattern. Round and round she walked, following the pattern of the carpet. Mental illness, or new form of sub-aerobic exercise?

After a few minutes, I made my way through the security line, where another agent reviewed my boarding pass and ID, as the squat agent continued her magic carpet walk. As far as I could tell, Agent Squat served no purpose other than to harass unsuspecting line duckers.

In the history of terrorist attacks on America, virtually every single incident has involved a young Muslim man, almost all in their twenties. I am not making a racial comment here, just observing a fact. There has never been a case where a Caucasian businesswoman has hijacked an airplane and caused damage to our citizens. A few months ago I was in a TSA security line after an airport incident in another city. The TSA was, quite understandably, beefing up procedures by subjecting randomly-selected passengers to additional screening. Several people in front of me in line stood a Caucasian businesswoman, early forties, well dressed in a suit, carrying a designer purse. The TSA pulled her out of the line for additional screening. They let pass with nary a second look the guy directly in front of me. He happened to be a Muslim man, mid-twenties, dressed in wrinkled clothing. who was clearly agitated, talking excitedly on his cell phone…in Arabic! It’s a wonder that our crack TSA staff didn’t offer to hold his bottle of clear liquids as he walked through the metal detector.

In the old days, many of the people who are now TSA agents made minimum wage and we locked our suitcases to keep our belongings safe from them. Now they are federal employees, with full benefits and a handsome patch on their uniform shoulders. We have a Republican president to thank for this.

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I will be curtailing my travel this year as I am almost certain to now be added to the TSA’s “no fly” list.

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As I predicted, the jockeying for legislative power is in full swing with the defeat of Prop. 93. It took less than 48 hours for Senator Darrell Steinberg to accumulate the votes to replace Senate President Don Perata. It will take a bit longer, though not too long, for someone to get the votes to replace Speaker Fabian Nunez. Both Nunez and Perata will technically hold their current positions until the fall, but power will immediately begin to shift to Steinberg and whomever wins the Speakership.

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Many people have asked for my take on the presidential election post Super Tuesday. I believe that if Barack Obama wins the nomination, he will become president. If Hilary wins, John McCain has a chance, but only a chance. More on why next week.

Out With A Whimper

Two of the most hyped political movements of the year went out with a whimper last week. The grand promise of California healthcare reform died of a mercy killing. And the high-flying candidacy of Rudy Giuliani ran out of real estate for further retreat.

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Senate President Don Perata mercifully killed healthcare reform, and we should be grateful that he did. The reform proposal crafted by Governor Schwarzenegger and Speaker Fabian Nunez was horribly flawed. Funded by a series of massive tax increases, AB1X would have caused serious disruption to the private health insurance marketplace while failing to accomplish the most important thing needed in healthcare today – control of rising costs. Millions of people would have lost their existing health coverage and been dumped into a government run pool. And premiums for all Californians would have risen dramatically due to “guarantee issue” provisions in the bill.

Perata was nominally a co-author of AB1X, but he’s had problems with the bill for a while. He refused to bring the Senate back to Sacramento to vote on the measure after the Assembly passed the bill on a party-line vote, and instead asked for a study by the Legislative Analyst. The LAO report highlighted many of the questionable assumptions concerning the measure’s finances, revealing how it could easily saddle taxpayers with billions of dollars in healthcare bills.

Perata could have moved this proposal to the Senate floor, and then to the Governor, had he wanted to. He could have forced Senate Health Chair Sheila Kuehl to cast a courtesy vote to move the bill along. He could have convinced Senators like Leland Yee to not pop off about their concerns over the bill. And he could have restructured membership of the committee to ensure that the bill’s supporters were able to rescue it.

But Senator Perata thought that the state shouldn’t enact a risky scheme like AB1X at a time when we are facing a multi-billion deficit from existing state programs. And he believed—rightly—that interest groups like the tobacco industry, businesses and major insurers would surely convince voters to reject the plan anyway.

So what’s next? Probably nothing. Speaker Nunez will surely exact revenge and kill Senator Kuehl’s’ single-payer measure, SB 840. It’s possible, but highly unlikely, that single-payer advocates could still qualify a proposal to the November 2008 ballot. Governor Schwarzenegger says he will continue to push for reform, but he has the attention span of a four year old and a multi-billion dollar budget deficit to figure out.  Most likely, nothing major will happen and we’ll kick this issue down the road to Washington DC for the next president and Congress to figure out.

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One guy who won’t have to figure out healthcare is Rudy Giuliani. I am really PO’d about Rudy. If ever there was a Republican who seemed to be right for the presidency, it was him. A proven executive and charismatic leader, he was possessed of national name ID, extremely positive polling numbers, a solid campaign organization and money to burn. I personally contributed the most I could under federal law to his primary campaign. So did a lot of people I know. What happened?

It turns out that Rudy Giuliani is an idiot. 

This decisive leader who so rallied his city, and the nation, in the wake of the despicable terrorist attack on New York couldn’t seem to decide where to fight until he had no fight left in him. He spent time and money in Iowa, then left, saying he wouldn’t compete there. He spent more time and money in New Hampshire, and then retreated, saying he wouldn’t compete there. He largely ignored Wyoming and Nevada, states he might have done well in, but spent time and money in South Carolina, and left there, saying he wasn’t competitive. By cutting and running in state after state, he abandoned all the people who had committed to him, and ensured an ever larger defeat in the wake of his departure. He clung to a highly-questionable and ultimately flawed strategy that he could withstand a month-long decline of relevance to emerge from Florida with a basket full of delegates and “big mo” headed into Super Tuesday. Well, not quite.

According to cnn.com, Rudy ends his campaign for the presidency with zero delegates. Zero! Hey, Rudy: Ron Paul has six delegates! Maybe you can introduce him at the convention.

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Roses are red, violets are blue. I’m schizophrenic, and so am I. I wanted the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, becoming the first team ever to post a perfect 19-0 record. But I couldn’t ignore the massive number of points that Vegas odds-makers gave the Giants. So I bet $500 on the Giants and took the points. I watched the game rooting for the Pats to win, and the Giants to keep it close. Weird, but I won my bet. And congratulations to the game MVP, Eli Manning, and his underdog Giants. The Kid Brother came through.