Cascading Dominoes
Weekly Rant
Vol. 1, Number 2
January 28, 2008
With the Field Poll results on Proposition 93 showing the term limits measure tied at 39 percent ‘yes,’ 39 percent ‘no,’ the game of legislative dominoes is now on. There’s little doubt that Prop 93 will be defeated. Support for this proposal is down 11 points in the past month, while opposition is up 7 points. All the momentum is favoring the ‘no’ side of this contest, and there isn’t much that can be done to reverse that momentum.
It was pretty funny watching Gale Kaufman – an exceptionally talented consultant and someone with whom I’ve had the pleasure of working – attempt to spin the Field Poll results. Her campaign didn’t say the survey results were wrong, but instead were “volatile.” That’s like saying the last voyage of the Titanic was “trending downward.” Prop. 93 is tanking and will soon be resting at the bottom of the political sea.
Once 93 is defeated next week, the dominoes will start to fall, and they’ll inevitably topple Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez and Senate President Don Perata. The only question is when.
Nunez and Perata are both termed out. Passage of Prop. 93 was their ticket to continuing legislative power, and that ticket is being voided. Both these legislative leaders have declared their intention to stay in their leadership positions for the balance of their term even if 93 goes down to defeat. But like it or not, ambitious legislators aren’t likely to wait long before making their own play for power. There will be an appropriate period of deference to the timetable of their departing leaders, but sooner rather than later someone will have the votes and the leadership elections will be called.
Who will be the first to be felled by the cascading dominos? That could depend on what campaign fundraising reports due on Thursday show. Senator Don Perata would appear to be the more vulnerable of the Democratic leaders. His election as Senate President was closely contested, and being the subject of a continuing federal political corruption probe is no small matter. Also, he has not been nearly as successful as Speaker Nunez in raising money for his members.
Fabian Nunez has been a prolific fundraiser. He had accumulated nearly $7 million in his campaign accounts as of the middle of last year, and no doubt has increased that total substantially since then. That gives him considerable leverage to control his exit from the Speakership on terms most favorable to him. He could attempt to anoint a successor, or he could stay out of a Speakership vote entirely, and broker an agreement from all combatants to not formally take office until after the legislative session concludes, in exchange for “shared leadership” and Nunez’s commitment to work with the winner on doling out his campaign largess.
It will be interesting to watch the legislative dominoes fall, and to see who is standing at the end.
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One of my passions is golf. It is such a joy watching Tiger Woods play the game at a level never achieved before. He won his first tournament of the year yesterday – by eight strokes. He has now won six tournaments in a row, 7 of his last 8, and 16 of the past 24. Unbelievable. And you have the sense that he is still getting better. There is a realistic chance for him to win the professional grand slam this year (Masters, US Open, British Open, and the PGA) for this first time in history. Can’t wait for the season to unfold.
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Apparently I am not the only male over 50 watching The Golf Channel. I am getting bothered by all the ads dealing with male health issues, one of which is particularly galling. A medication to help middle-age men having difficulty urinating is called, “Flomax.” Good grief! You just know that this drug was the subject of extensive focus group research among consumers, and they come up with “Flomax!” I shudder to think what these marketing geniuses would name a drug dealing with constipation.
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